All over the Arab world, aging rulers are staring hard at their own mortality. In a region where government is distinctly personal, the death of a leader can plunge a country into chaos. For a generation, most Arab nations have enjoyed stable–if not always enlightened–rule under a long-lasting king, president or dictator. But now many of the old leaders are sick, and vast changes are looming.
While his father lingered last week, Crown Prince Abdullah, 37, spoke hopefully about a new generation of sophisticated, Western-educated rulers emerging in Arab countries. ““We’re all surprised about how much we have in common,’’ he said. ““A lot of us went to the same schools, we like seeing the same movies, we’ve been to the same restaurants. We’ve all started with a clean slate, and we don’t have some of the insecurities or problems that our elders have.’’ That may be an accurate description of Abdullah’s chums among the younger royals of the Persian Gulf. But in most of the major countries, the next leader–or even the one after that–is not likely to be some cosmopolitan Arab Yuppie.
Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd, who is too sick to govern, will probably be succeeded by his half-brother, Crown Prince Abdullah, who is only a year younger; after that, the succession isn’t clear. Syria’s Assad, who suffers from diabetes and heart trouble, has been trying to groom his only surviving son, Bashar, an ophthalmologist. Bashar is expected to switch career tracks this week, at the start of his father’s next term, and take charge of the security apparatus. In Iraq, Saddam keeps putting more power into the hands of his sinister sons, Uday and Qusay. Other Arab leaders, including Arafat and Mubarak, haven’t designated their successors, apparently to discourage any challenge to their own primacy.
Despite his youth, Jordan’s next ruler will soon have to name his own heir apparent; the monarchy is too fragile to operate for long without a clear line of succession. In his talk with reporters, Abdullah did not rule out the possibility of selecting his 18-year-old half-brother Prince Hamzah, the son of Hussein’s American-born wife Queen Noor. Abdullah said the decision would be made by the family as a whole. ““We’ll all sit down together to see who is the best person to provide continuity,’’ he said, adding that as ““someone who had not expected to be put into this position, I have no ego problems.’’ After 46 years of virtual one-man rule, Jordan may find itself with a more collegial monarchy, and that alone would mark a distinct generational change.
Yasir Arafat, 69: Former terrorist Palestine: Not a state-yet Health: Said to have Parkinson’s Successor: None designated Muammar Kaddafi, 56: Pariah Libya: Signs of rebellion Health: Recovering from injuries Successor: Leans toward son King Fahd, 75, Old Guard Saudi Arabia: Ebbing wealth Health: Crippled by stroke Successor: Half-brother, 74
