Memo to Democrats: your votes don’t count.
I’m referring, of course, to average, everyday Democrats–the kind who have hair that moves and own but a single American flag tie. If you’re the other kind of Democrat–i.e., one of the 795 elected official or party activists known as superdelegates–nevermind. Seeing as there’s aren’t enough plain old primary delegates left for either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to reach the magic 2,025 majority–or for Clinton to significantly slash Obama’s current 175-delegate lead–yours are the only votes that still matter. At this point, only the superdelegates can prevent forest fires. And pick the Democratic presidential nominee.
This comes as no surprise, I’m sure, to anyone with a functioning nervous system. But it’s worth taking a deep breath from time to time and checking in on these all-powerful party poobahs. Hence the Stumper’s time-honored Superdelegate Watch.
So where does the superslugfest stand? Mere moments from a TKO–in Barack Obama’s favor. On Feb. 5 (a.k.a. Super Tuesday) Clinton was clobbering Obama by 90 superdelegates, 260-170. But by Feb. 28–after 11 straight Obama wins–Obama had picked up 34 and Clinton had lost 6, narrowing the gap to a mere 50. Despite Rev. Wright, Bittergate and the nagging questions about his blue-collar appeal, a steady trickle meant the Illinois senator won a full 80 percent of superdel commitments in February, March and April, and finally overtook his rival on Friday. Overall, between Super Tuesday and this morning, Obama has netted a convincing 114 superdelegates to her 16.5, and now leads 281 to 276.5 in the super sweepstakes. Can you say comeback?
That said, the most striking stat–and the one that makes it painfully clear how improbable a Clinton coronation has become–is Obama’s current Rate of Commitment (or ROC, because acronyms make everything sound more official, even if they exist only in my mind). Since the commentariat crowned Obama “the nominee” last Tuesday–prematurely, but not without reason–he’s picked up a staggering 29 superdels. (For comparison’s sake, that tops his total take from March 6 [after Ohio and Texas] to April 23 [after Pennsylvania].) The problem for Clinton? Right now, Obama has 1878 total delegates; she lags with 1699.5. If Obama keeps snagging supers at an ROC of 29 per week, he’ll hit at least 1965 by the end of primary season–meaning that he’ll only need to win 60 (or 28 percent) of the remaining primary delegates from West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana to reach a 2,025 majority and clinch the nomination before June 3. If Obama exceeds 28-percent support in the final primaries–a safe bet, considering he’s the favorite in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota–the magic moment will likely arrive in May.
As the final hour approaches, then, expect Clinton’s rallying cry of 2,209–the revised delegate majority if Florida and Michigan are included in the equation–to increase in volume and intensity. But as we wrote last week, the senator from New York would actually be further from clinching the nomination after those rogue states are factored in and the bar for winning is raised–an inconvenient truth, seeing as nothing that happens between now and June 3 will reverse the flow of superdelegates to Obama. Asked this morning whether Clinton should quit, former Colorado Governor and DNC Chairman Roy Romer–one of four Obama superdelegates to announce so far today–told reporters that “the math is controlling.” “This race, I believe, is over,” he said. “The more information she has about where superdelegates are, I think it will help her in that decision.”
In other words, Obama’s superdel trickle has finally become a flood–and Clinton is about to get swept away.
P.S. Yes, the title is a reference to “Unwritten” by Natasha Bedingfield. And yes, Stumper watches The Hills. But only because, like, Girlfriend of Stumper is really into it.
