OVERALL

With wins in Delaware and Connecticut, it was clear that Obama could capture toss-up states. But in the end, he couldn’t win the biggest battleground of all: California. Combine Obama’s defeat there with losses in Massachusetts and New Jersey–states where some observers expected his recent surge to counter Clinton’s early strength–and Hillary may wake up Wednesday with a “stopped Obama’s mo” narrative working in her favor.

All in all, though, expect a tie. “In terms of delegates we’re going to end up in essentially a draw today,” Obama guru David Axelrod told reporters earlier. That’s not spin. The current count is Obama at 562 and Clinton at 582, according to CNN–with neither California (Clinton) or Missouri (Obama) tipping the scales too far in favor of one candidate, thanks to proportional allocation of delegates.

On the Republican side, McCain, who won the crown jewel of California shortly after midnight, is still well on his way to steamrolling the opposition–but perhaps without sizable Southern support, as Huckabee eked out close victories across Dixie in West Virginia, Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama. Expect the pundits to obsess over Huck’s surprise showings at the expense of McCain’s expected victories, even if they’re not worth as many delegates–an emphasis that will underscore the work still required to reconstruct the Republican coalition. Romney, of course, was waiting for the Big Enchilada with fingers crossed–he needed a major win outside of his home states of Massachusetts and Utah to stay alive. But when word finally arrived that McCain had captured the Golden State, you had to wonder: will Romney keep on keeping on?

One MSM note going forward: the networks have spent the night “calling” full states like it’s Election Day–even though, in many cases, the delegate tallies matter more. Not that I blame them; what else is there to do before the votes are even counted? Still, I wonder if by the time they get around to crunching the numbers, viewers will have moved on–or fallen asleep–with largely irrelevant story lines already firmly fixed in the national consciousness.

DEMOCRATS

Clinton: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Tennessee, Oklahoma, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey

Clinton is looking at least as strong as expected, if not stronger, considering Obama’s wave of positive press over the past two weeks. The first big disappointment of the night for Obama: New Jersey. An upset there would’ve signaled a potential tidal wave nationally, but the Latino vote swung the state for Clinton–which ended up also helping the New York senator capture Arizona. The Clinton camp is breathing a sigh of relief after fending off a last-minute Obama surge in Massachusetts, fueled, perhaps, by the Kennedy endorsements. (Some good they did.) The size and swiftness of the win (a surprise even for the Clintonistas) was encouraging–especially as an omen for California, where Clinton was hoping to thwart a similar Obama insurgency. And ultimately she did, finally capturing the Golden State as Tuesday turned to Wednesday (key constituencies: Latinos and women). In the “no duh” category, Clinton was expected to win handily in all three Southern states and her home state of New York. Final margins–and the all-important delegate counts, which could show closer-than-expected Obama finishes in the Empire, Garden, Golden and Bay States–still to come.

Obama: Georgia, Illinois, Delaware, Alabama, North Dakota, Kansas, Idaho, Colorado, Missouri, Alaska

Delaware was the first toss-up decided tonight, and was seen in Obama circles as a sign of good things to come in Connecticut–another state where independents, who tend to favor Obama, weren’t allowed to vote. The harbinger turned out to be true; Obama soon made the Constitution State, once a Clinton lock, the second swing state to swing his way. And by 1:00 a.m., the Illinois senator completed a come-from-behind victory in Missouri–a famous political bellwether–clinching his near sweep of the South and Plains States. The losses in Massachusetts and California, however, were serious let downs that prevented Obama from harnessing any real momentum for Feb. 6 and beyond. Interestingly, Obama’s massive margins in Georgia–he won among women and white men, for example–were a bit unexpected, and helped rebut the insta-CW that the senator took the Peach State solely on the strength of his (still overwhelming) black support. A similar story in Alabama, which was a closer contest than Georgia. I expected North Dakota, Minnesota, Idaho, Colorado, Alaska and Kansas to fall for Obama–they’re caucus states, which means they’re well suited to his organizational strengths (especially among young voters). And as for Utah–Clinton is hugely unpopular in the Beehive State, making it ripe for an Obama rout.

Too Close to Call: New Mexico

REPUBLICANS

McCain: California, Illinois, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, New York, Oklahoma, Arizona, Missouri

No alarms, no surprises. With California and Missouri comfortably in his column, McCain is crushing his rivals in the delegate count and will remain the leader when all is said and done. “As much as I’ve relished come-from-behind wins,” he said tonight, “I think we have to get used to the idea that we are the Republican party front-runner for the nomination. And I don’t mind it one bit.” That said, McCain had hoped to show better below the Mason-Dixon line, where social conservatives made it clear tonight that they’re still uncomfortable with candidacy. Huckabee for VP? It’d be one way to thank him for crippling Romney. Let the healing begin.

Romney: Massachusetts, Utah, North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Colorado, Alaska

A loss in the Bay State would’ve killed Romney’s campaign. Same goes for Utah, where he led in the final pre-Feb. 5 polls by 75 percent. Minnesota was a pleasant surprise (I had it leaning to McCain). And Romney hit his targets in the low-delegate “frontier” states, where he was the only candidate to really compete. But with a bruising psychological defeat in California, his firewall state, and dispiriting bronzes across the South, it’s difficult to image Mitt continuing (credibly, at least) to cast himself as the only conservative alternative to McCain. Unless, of course, he’s neck-and-neck with Mac in California delegates. Unlikely–but it’s his last best hope.

Huckabee: West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee

Arkansas was no shocker–it’s Huck’s home state. But West Virginia spelled serious trouble for Romney, who was expected to win. (Read my take here.) Eventually, with narrow upsets over McCain in Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama–Mac led narrowly going in–Huckabee completed a Southern sweep that dashed Romney’s hopes of building an anti-McCain coalition of conservatives. In fact, now that Romney has lost California, Huck will likely supplant Mitt as the last non-McCain standing–an amazing feat considering his constant lack of cash. “Over the past few days, some people have been saying that this is a two-man race,” he said from Little Rock. “Well, guess what? It is. And we’re still in it.” Whether he hangs on as serious rival or potential veep remains to be seen.

Paul: N/A

No wins for Paul, but his libertarian leaning message endeared him to hands-off North Dakotans and Alaskans, who awarded the Texas congressman a total of 10 delegates. Still, with an overall tally that’s 10 times smaller than Huckabee’s, he’s no closer to the nomination tonight than he was this morning.